The deposit picture is getting a little better, but nobody should mistake that for a boom. In ProSight’s latest “State of U.S. Deposits” webinar—drawing on benchmarking that covers around $4.4 trillion in consumer deposit balances—the headline on consumer balances was modest improvement: 2025 finished up about 1.5%, better than the year before but still “relatively low overall,” as Tom Hoscheidt, managing director for research at ProSight, put it.
That same cautious tone carried into the 2026 outlook. ProSight’s early read is that consumer deposit growth is tracking a bit ahead of last year, but still likely to stay muted unless rates fall further. As Hoscheidt explained, lower rates tend to make alternatives less attractive, which can help more money flow into deposits. Here are a few takeaways that stood out:
Wealth is still doing the heavy lifting. Hoscheidt showed that the K-shaped recovery remains very real in deposits. In 2025, deposit balances declined 8.7% for mass market households with $0 to $100,000 in investable assets, were nearly flat for mass affluent households with $100,000 to $500,000 (down 0.2%), and grew 1.6% for wealth households with more than $500,000. Looking back to 2019, he said the mass market has “had very low overall growth index,” while the higher-balance segments have pulled ahead.
The turnaround in checking wasn’t enough to lift the whole deposit mix. Consumer checking balances turned around in 2025, finishing up 3.4% after a negative 3.8% the year before. Savings and money market balances ended the year flat, and CD growth slowed sharply to 2%. Hoscheidt’s summary was straightforward: 2025 growth came in at “the very low end of our estimate range.”
2026 looks a little better—but still rate-dependent. With one Fed rate cut, ProSight expects consumer deposit growth in the 2% to 2.5% range. With a second cut, that could rise to 2.5% to 3%. But Hoscheidt said overall growth will likely remain “muted” because rates are not expected to fall enough to produce the kind of stronger rebound in deposits that banks have seen in lower-rate environments.
Small business surprised to the upside. ProSight had expected small business deposit growth to finish 2025 around flat to negative 1%. Instead, it came in at 2%. Hoscheidt said that was “well above where we anticipated,” with contributions from both checking and non-checking balances.
Incentive offers are working—but often with smaller balances. John Rountree, head of client engagement for research at ProSight, said cash incentive offers are increasing, with Gen Z and millennials especially likely to respond. Accounts opened without an incentive averaged around $4,800, versus about $2,300 for those opened with one. Rountree also noted that branch-originated incentive accounts average roughly twice the balances of digitally opened ones, giving bankers a better shot at building a deeper relationship from the start.
The broader lesson: growth is out there, but banks still have to be selective about where they chase it—and how much they pay for it.
