The Economy: Trouble Ahead

As 2022 wanes, risk managers continue to face the difficult combination of slower economic growth, persistent inflation, equity market volatility, and continued monetary policy tightening. No matter where you look, it seems, there are recession warning signs and credit risk implications.

Jobs

The four-week moving average of jobless claims has mostly been on the decline since early April. At the end of September, it stood at 207,000, down from 371,250 roughly a year earlier. T…